The LEC Playoffs continue this weekend with the loser’s bracket, and with Fnatic and KCorp failing last week, all eyes are on them as one of these two teams will be eliminated by Monday. So what can we expect out of this weekend’s matches?
Image Credits: Riot/LEC Flickr
Saturday: Fnatic vs GiantX
Fnatic and GiantX will face off on Saturday. There’s a heavy favorite in this match, it’s nearly certain that FNC will come out ahead.
Fnatic lost to G2 in the first round, but it’s a story we’ve seen time and time again. They look good or even great in the regular split, face G2, lose while looking significantly weaker than before, then make it through the loser’s bracket to either meet G2 again in finals (and lose), or lose to the other team that’ll make it to finals. They consistently lose in finals, they consistently look worse against G2, but they’re still better in the playoffs than almost every other team, and they looked great until their last match.
On the other side, GX has not looked good this split, only beating the teams below them plus G2. They’ve also never achieved anything in playoffs – the last time “they” have beaten a team that wasn’t bottom-tier was when Excel did it in 2023, before their merger with Giants to form GX. So, we overwhelmingly expect Fnatic to win this one.
Image Credits: LEC Flickr
If GX have a chance, it’s going to be through Isma and Noah. Isma seems to have found new strength all of a sudden since GX’s matches in Madrid and has looked fearsome in recent matches, while Noah has had excellent performances in the past with Fnatic, and he, too, has lived up to these again in the last month.
To bank on Fnatic possibly being destabilized after their last series, GiantX’s jungle and bot lane could be just what they need to drive it home. There’s also a chance that FNC is preparing too much for their potential match against KC on Monday, and underestimates GX! But this should be a 3-1 for Fnatic, with one loss because, well, it’s Fnatic.
Sunday: Karmine Corp Vs Team Heretics
Karmine Corp and Team Heretics will meet on Sunday, and it’s a similar story as that of the first match – nobody will bet on TH to take it.
KC dominated the regular season, and while they lost in the upper bracket, a similar story took place last split. What followed was KC coming back looking much stronger through the lower bracket and clawing their way to a playoffs victory.
Heretics, on the other hand, never looked good for long. They were steadily improving for a while, and the progress seemed to come crashing down in the last weeks. The results were never there, either: TH barely made the playoffs – off the back of a tiebreaker – and they never won against a team that placed higher than them.
Image Credits: Riot Games
Then again – not many people would have bet on MKOI winning against KC, either.
Team Heretics’ best chances in this match will have to go through their jungle – top duo. They’ve shown the most game-driving performances (even if perhaps at the expense of consistency), and these are also the two roles that struggled the most for KCorp last weekend. The meta being in favor of carry top laners and junglers with agency can also give these two enough tools to take over the game.
Paired with that, interviews with KCorp have also shown them to be extremely confident coming into playoffs, expecting to win against both FNC and G2 and certainly not expecting to lose against MKOI. So it’s also possible that they don’t recover well from that loss, or that they chalk it up to a fluke against an unexpectedly strong opponent and underestimate TH as well while focusing on the potential match against FNC.
These factors are where Team Heretics might find their chances. But Karmine Corp are heavy favorites in this match, and should take it 3-0.
Monday: The Winners Of These Two Matches
On Monday, the winners of these two matches will face off (while the losers are eliminated from the playoffs). The winner of that match will then go on to face MKOI in the loser’s finals, competing both to qualify for MSI (and for the subsequent Esports World Cup), and to meet G2 in the grand finals. The LoL betting odds are overwhelmingly in favor of Monday’s match being a clash between Fnatic and Karmine Corp. So I’ll focus on that possibility first.
Fnatic vs Karmine Corp
With these teams topping the regular season and looking a cut above the others, it’s crazy that one of them will already be eliminated on Monday (if not before). But if any two teams are going to defy expectations in the wrong direction, it’s these two.
It’s hard to call which of those two teams would take it. They’ve both shown a very high peak during the regular split – and it was Fnatic who won their match then. If they would meet at their respective peak form from this split, Fnatic would probably come out on top, but not by much. The real question is what form will they both have. And possibly how much time they chose to allocate to preparing for this match, at the expense of the one they’ll play before.
Having to choose, I’ll say Fnatic is more likely to win. KC went 2-3 in their last series, but they also were massively behind at one point in both of their wins. If Fnatic is being offered an easy early game or a way back into the game, they should make use of it.
As for KC’s chances, they would be through mid, jungle, and top, where all three of their players have shown more consistency than their counterparts in orange. And if those three start to crumble, Fnatic are historically unlikely to find their way back in.
I expect the result to be 3-1 either way: a series that will be decided by the mental state of the teams won’t make it to 5 games, and is also likely to have one game going the other way.
Image Credits: Riot Games
And If Not, Then What?
If either one of TH or GX manages to beat their opponent in the first round, then they’ll remain the heavy underdog for the second round, and throughout the rest of playoffs. They’re looking a cut and a half below the top 3, and also below MKOI now that they’ve proven that they belong there as well.
A win for TH or GX will most likely be the result of good play, yes, but also mostly of their opponent still performing below how they did for the regular split. And they have no guarantee that it’ll be the same for their next adversary.
And what if both Heretics and GiantX win their series? Then nobody knows. Last time they met, GiantX looked heads and shoulders above Team Heretics, so it should still be in their favor. But if they advance to round 2, it means that both teams have stepped up big time since the regular split, and that precedent should no longer be relevant.
Tune in to LoL Esports on Saturday at 5PM CEST to follow the action, and don’t forget to come back here next week for a preview of the last two matches!